Bubble Prayed

04-10-2010 ML
Merrill Lynch: "There is no golden bubble while you do not go to a holiday and they they all say to you that they want to buy gold”
Raj Sharma, the executive director and adviser deprived of patrimonies in the group of private banking and investments of Merrill Lynch in Boston, says: "I will be observing it, but I do not believe that we are not even nearly one bubble. While you do not go to a holiday and they all say to you that they want to buy gold, you will be well. It is not the case yet.”

28-09-2010 gold and Finance
There is no bubble in the price of the gold
The notable appreciation of the gold in 2010 is also the argument used to sow new doubts, which materialize in the question: Is there a bubble in the price of the gold?
Is the gold expensive? Before answering to this, it would be necessary to wonder as regards what it is supposed that the gold is expensive. The gold is a money and as such it is valued: by means of comparison with other currencies and it is quoted in his change opposite to the dollar, exactly just as any other "money". The question must refer, therefore, at the cost of the gold opposite to the dollar and opposite to other currencies.
In contrast to the money of role, which has always had a finite functioning time, the gold is a money recognized internationally for thousands of years.
The current stage, one of the most serious financial crises of the history, is defined for:
* The deterioration of the sovereign debt of countries usually foreign to doubts about his credit quality.
* The existence a real debt bubble, due to massive emission realized by the States.
* The continuous liquidity injections in the financial system, which mine the confidence in strong currencies of other moments.
The result of everything previous is the absence of credibility in the current financial system.
In fact, from 1971, when it came undone to the dollar of his support in gold, we live in a financial experiment based on the indebtedness and the possibility of speculation that has multiplied in the last years.
The gold is not a debt
We live through a credit crisis and of confidence in the system, in the currencies, in the debt …
But the gold is not a debt of anybody. Contrary to the currencies expressed without much ado I endorse that the confidence that we have in the governments that express them (there are payment promises), the gold one cannot create of anything: it is had really or is not had, they do not cost notes in account.
Especially in last two years, when more there have got worse the problems of liquidity and of solvency on the debt markets, the increase of the golden demand for investment in his different forms has gone off, up to coming to almost 500 tons in the first semester of 2010. While the dear offer is 2.600 tons for every 2010.
If up to the very same George Soros, who also speaks in public about exaggerated rise, he has just bought 650 million dollars in the quoted fund ETF SPDR Gold!
It does not seem, therefore, that we are before a bubble.
Also in Finance

17-09-2010 the Economist
George Soros: "The increase of the gold is not going to last forever”
The guru George Soros said (as always interested in his own goals) Thursday, the 17-09-2010th in an interview to Reuters:
“The evolution of the gold is the final bubble because it will keep on rising, but it is not sure by no means and it is not going to last forever.”

But is cúal the final bubble really?

17-08-2010 KV
China sells almost 100.000m of treasuries in the last year
If doubts were staying, China in the last year has sold almost 100.000m in American public debt, happens of 940.000m in portfolio in July, 2009 to 844.000m in June, 2010.
Bloomberg in English

The final bubble!

The exposed thing previously demonstrates that both China and the investors in general will choose - in the end - clearly and without another exit for the sales of the government bonds, other futures, derivatives and actions; buying, changing to and betting for and sheltering in the gold before the economic suspense.

16-05-2010 ABC
The bubble of the gold seems still far
It is the new fever of the gold. The descent to open grave of the markets during the last weeks has emphasized that the speculators do and undo in the parquets of variable revenue at his{your} pleasure. The red numbers in the qualifications found his reply in the descent of the community currency.
The Euro fell down on Friday up to the 1,240, a new minimum in 4 years.
The trip of the gold, nevertheless, is very different.
On having talked each other of a countercyclical movement, only the structural and continued revival of the economy will be able to contain the rise of the price of the gold.
There is no compensation risk.
In contrast to what it happens in the bonds emission, nobody buys the debt of anybody.
Some experts think that, of continuing this tendency, the price of the gold might reach in the short term 2.400 dollars. Opposite to the shy evolution of the investment funds and the bonds of the state, 1.000 inverted euros 10 years in gold might sell today for 4.000, according to Gold Direct.
The risk of the bubble seems still far.
In the 70s the gold increased 24 times, from 35 up to 850 dollars. If it was rising as in the past cycle numbers for 6.000 dollars would give us the ounce. I do not know if we go towards there, but if the international situation does not get ready, the history will be different.

30-01-2010
There is no golden bubble
Both the dollar and the euro are breaking

30-01-2010 Consumer
How to promote the savings in 2010
In Spain to keep the capital in a deposit or in an imposition in the bank will not bring any more than 2 % of profitability this year 2010. To it it is necessary to add that, at the moment when the inflation upturn, the small appreciations will evaporate.
Inside the fixed revenue there can subscribe products of the Spanish Public Treasure, which profitability ranges between 0,40 % and 4,90 %. The yield of the last auction was 0,41 % for the letters a three months, 0,51 % if they were to six months and of 0,93 % for hired to one year. In case of the bonds, the profitability of the signed ones to three years was 2,13 % and 2,75 % to five years. The obligations produced 2,86 % to five years, 3,88 % the signed ones to 10 years, 4,25 % if the term was getting longer to 15 years and 4,90 % for a period of 30 years.
Also there can be selected funds indexed to markets of big potentiality like those of prime matters or precious metals, like the gold, the silver, the platinum …

30-01-2010 the Economist
Soros warns that a bubble is growing in the gold
There are already different the experts who have spoken about the formation of a possible bubble in the prime matters, especially in the gold. The last one to join this current has been George Soros, who thinks that that of the precious metal is “the most recent bubble of assets”, the first inflationary consequence of the big masses of liquidity that the central banks have injected to the economies of half a world across his cheap financing. The hypothesis of the guru is that this liquidity excess creates a burette in which the bubbles grow with serviceability.

30-01-2010 Cotizalia
The gold: the next financial bubble in exploding?
good comments …

30-12-2009 finance
Who remembers today Bre-X, the biggest fraud committed in the history of the gold?
Sometimes the things are not what they seem. And the bubbles can prick themselves almost so rapidly as they form. This is what it spent at the end of the nineties with the Canadian mine-layer Bre-X, protagonist of the biggest fraud I never dress in the history of the gold.
The Bre-X moral is that the bubbles prick themselves with the same facility with which they get conceited. And that often, the investors continue a behavior of completely irrational herd that ends up driving to the ruin.
As aims Marion Mueller, president and director Comercial of
OroyFinanzas.com
And since it finishes Carpathians: "They never buy an action without knowing if it makes broomsticks or cables of optical fibre, which do not give it to themselves with cheese.”

Comment PrecioOro:
Although the article is very well presented it is necessary to say and warn that one mistakes the author cotitling “: the biggest fraud committed in the history of the gold …?
Apparently he has not heard (tungsten) speaking this year 2009 on the scandal of the golden ingots forged with wolframio …
The whole Spanish and Castilian-speaking press has not done to itself echo of the swindle of the century, and it is not that of Madoff, although thrown by the everlasting interested parties so that any investors go out of the golden investment, it turned out to be real that the central banks of the USA and of England are guarding and selling-ehem - falsified golden ingots,
to start it is possible to look somewhere here:
Gold ETF Warning, Tungsten Filled Fake Gold Bars and Cat and videos in YouTube “Tungsten Gold“.

29-12-2009 LD
HSBC, Christian Heger, does not see any bubble in the gold
If a liquidity cut takes place the market of the premiums can explode. Christian Heger, agent of assets of HSBC, warns about the consequences that it would have a hasty exit of the politics of cheap money that the central banks are taking: "It would imply a severe correction on the market”. Where Heger does not see any bubble it is in the gold and he assures “It is the metal of the crises. If his price rises what it is necessary to raise is the confidence in the public debt.”

21-12-2009 the Times / You Obtain
Roubini - Gold or weapon
The most important of the “Christmas story of Roubini”, or, “The bubble and the promoters of the gold”, published in the most important languages and newspapers of the world …:
The recent increase of the prices of the gold only is justified partly by the economic essentials. It is not also clear why they should the investors to accumulate gold if the global economy falls down again in recession and the worries on the depression and the uncontrolled inflation they go off. If really one is afraid of a global economic collapse, it will be necessary to accumulate weapon, canned food and other products that could be used in an isolated hut.

On November 25, 2009 the Spanish TV "Four" of the “Group Hurry” has presented news on the new records of the prices of the gold, allowing to think at the end of the reportage an associate of Cardinal Atlas, and the above mentioned personage really speaks about a bubble gold, instead of making use of the time to recommend and to tell to the village why of to buy gold and silver instead of selling it.

Four
The fever of the gold (25-11-2009)
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The gold marks a record again. It is already located in 1.180 dollars for ounce. The investors bid and warm his price.

19-12-2009 GEAB N°40
THE REAL BUBBLE:
The obligations of the States constitute already a bubble on the verge of exploding
The Euroarea, which has the most important reservations of gold of the world, an exterior commerce assembles also to countries that accumulated budgetary surpluses until last year, always excedentario and a central bank that has not transformed his balance into a recipient of assets “putrid or bogeys” (as the FED does it for 18 months).
If the crisis of the Greek public funds indicates something, it is not so much the situation of Greece or a specific problems of the Euroarea, but a problem more general that will worsen in 2010:
the fact that the obligations of the State constitute already a bubble on the verge of exploding (more than 49.500 million USD to world scale, what represents an increase of 45 % in 2 years).
Sources: 24-11-2009 DailyMarkets, 30-11-2009 Telegraph, 24-11-2009 Forbes

16-12-2009 Bolsamanía
Roubini does not like the gold, and ZeroHedge answers him
Nouriel Roubini, the guru of the crisis, said “that the bubble of the gold might exploit and he was alert on a wider correction. Roubini thinks that the fundamental ones are not sufficient to explain his rally up to new historical maxima. He believes that the gold is a barbarian relic.”
Roubini should read the article of ZeroHedge: “Unbelievable-Opportunity-Gold“, then would not write similar garbage … but as it belongs to several clubs … ehem …

14-12-2009 the Economist
Some pessimists, like Nouriel Roubini, warn about a possible búrbuja that it relates with the gold. Do they believe that it is like that?
Marc Faber: "Every day I ask myself if the gold is expensive or not. Finally I have come to the conclusion that I do not believe that the gold is so expensive considering the impression of currency that is carried out in the countries of the whole world. I believe that from now on the area of support or the minimum for the golden ounce will not go down 1.000 dollars. The central banks are all equal ones, they are money printers, I would dare to say that the gold is an even cheaper today than in 2001 dice the interest rates.”
Jim Rogers: "First of all I would like clarifying that I do not pay any attention to Nouriel Roubini, since it is not right with his predictions. Perhaps it had a stroke of luck on having moved forward the catharsis of the markets but, nevertheless, I realize that during the crisis, his investments in stocks remained current and in the end it had to sell them in the moment more low, that demonstrates that his predictions have no foundation. Not long ago I was in a conference with 300 agents of more sophisticated funds of the world and 76 % neither was invested in gold earlier he nor had ever bought gold. I neither. I do not know how there can be the people who says that there is a bubble when nobody is investing. There is no bubble, simply the price has risen. I, at the moment, do not think to buy. That the price of anything is high it does not mean that there is a bubble.”

13-12-2009 the Country (Spain)
Publishing house - The bubble of the gold
Of the mentioned precedents it is deduced easily that the bubble of the gold will begin diminishing when the Federal Reservation of the United States (Fed) preannounces an interest rates increase; or if some of the central banks that still support gold in his cellars - for example, the Bank of France, China, the proper Fed - decides to sell the reservations that are not already needed like support of the currency. This decision would help to lower the price. But it is slightly probable that they do it because of an excess of investment that has all the tints of a passing overheating.
“mmm … it begins the publishing above mentioned good, but in the end it ends with a tremendous mistake …”
There asks to The Country, and himself must ask about it any commentator and analyst of Economy, (before beginning writing an article about the gold to receive his salary at the end of the month)
To what % should the FED raise the interest rates?
- to be able to keep on paying the American debt,
- to avoid a hyperinflation,
- to avoid a world depression,
- and finally to avoid the failure of the USA and of the world financial system.
And do not forget: what FED is a private institution!
And do not forget what there says Kenneth Rogoff (Teacher in the University of Harvard):
“The USA has to refinance in the next 2 years 40 % of his state debt, without counting the debt of the FED!”
And Obama in an interview to ABC (17-12-2009):
The president said: "that the costs of I will Medicate and Medicaid plow on an unsustainable trajectory and if there is not action taken to bring them down, the federal government will go bankrupt.”
And do not also forget that China needs and she is going to buy approximately 10.000 tons of gold (in the next 10 years), according to Ji Xiaonan in the Chinese newspaper China Youth Daily, to eliminate the losses of the exhibition to the weaker and weaker dollar.

11-12-2009 gold And Finance
John Hathaway: The price of the gold is undervalued and very far of a bubble
John Hathaway managing director of the prestigious Fund of Investment in Gold “Tocqueville Gold Fund“, suggests in his recent article, “To Contrarian's Dilemma“, that “the perception of the market of the gold has changed and the rhythm to the rise of the metal has hastened. The effect of seeing to the gold quoting in four digits, over 1.000 dollars, has been a magician for the investment psychology. Day by day, the financial press publishes formless enthusiasts on the perspectives of the metal. Mostly, we believe that the Federal Reservation of the USA, which is the watchdog of the purchasing power of the dollar, does not seem already disliked on having seen an increase in the price of the metal. His game is a reflation and they are not very selective with the goods that sobrevaluan like turned out. The price of the gold is in a bubble only for those that support the faith in the politicians and in the financial authorities that propose to swim against the tide of the deflation. For the rest of us, the gold is a protection from the monetary crisis that is still still to come. The current bullish market in the gold has still very much in his favor. The implications of the upward potential of the gold keep on being a mystery, even for most of those who have already been raised on board of the train. The once weak market of the gold has developed and strengthened. In our opinion three factors exist for this: cultural delay, the impeccable fundamental some, and the persistence of the incomprehension.”

23-11-2009 Kitco/Goldmoney
Welcome to the Second Upward Phase of the Gold
James Turk: "The bullish market consists of 3 phases, and when the gold overcame 1.000 dollars, simply one entered the second phase. In other words, the gold has to rise still much more, and has still many months and years ahead. Then, do to become worried therefore it will hear or read in the commercial mass media (mainstream it comes up). (GoldMoney)

It is necessary to see it of such a way as Robert Blumen argues:

“Average most of the mass (TV / radio) and the financial press have a marked slant mediático anti-gold. Both the news agencies and the presenters of the News in the Television who say now: ' that thing about the gold is another bubble´ … All these people not only failed in identifying the bubble of the markets in the year 1990, or that of the real estate bubble, but, also they cheered the people, to his hearing, to take part up; the mass media actively promoted the excesses of these booms and untenable bubbles. And even more impressive, in almost the whole moment that the bullish market of the gold lasts already, for already a decade, these average people of the mass they have failed on not having identified the increase of the price of the gold as a tendency of investment.”

Apart we give them a pair of very interesting linkage (although in English)
on the topic the bubble of not existing gold:

25-11-2009 GlobalResearch
Bob Chapman explains:
The investors buy gold … The real situation of the financial markets.
For example he says that: "China tries of buying approximately 10.000 tons of gold more, to cover better the renmimbi, to increase much more the level of the world investments, and to be able to develop new technologies …”

24-11-2009 Watson Wyatt
Analysis of extreme risks
It includes stage that the whole world should understand.
Hyperinflation - Gold. Hyperinflation - Gold.
Discharge PDF

17-11-2009
Jim Rogers says the following thing:
I PRAY: “It should sell being to the ceiling, but I do not believe that this is the ceiling. The gold fitted to the inflation of 1980, should be right now to 2000 dollars the ounce.”

14-11-2009 Financial Times
Super rich they buy gold and sell Hedge Funds
66 % of the richest families of the world buys gold …

09-11-2009
Video - Test - golden Bubble - bandaged to You gold for 50 dollars the ounce
This agency went out to the street to prove if the people either there realizes the golden bullish market, that is to say, to see if either we are in a golden bubble.
Result: Nobody made use of the offer to buy a golden ounce for 50 dollars …

12-11-2009
The dollar will lose his state of monetary reservation
Peter Schiff: "In these moments there is no currency that is covered by gold. That's why I believe what central bank should take gold as a principal, separate monetary reservation it can have some of his reservations in different currencies. To remind to him that it is not possible to have a monetary system without money. And money is a gold. Only to print tickets …, there is nothing behind. Buy gold!”

07-11-2009 CAT
Chris Powell: "It has not already gone shopping, alone interventions.”
For which the Theory of the Waves of Elliott does not work …

Summary and conclusion:

When is it necessary to go out of the gold or of a supposed bubble of gold?

a) in the moment when all the people want physical gold …

b) in the moment when a new monetary system arises, or alguién he wants to establish one …

17-09-2010

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